The McCain Factor

The conservative airwaves are abuzz with disgust at John McCain's impending nomination as the Republican candidate for president. Now that Governor Romney has suspended his campaign, only Governor Huckabee remains as a "challenger," and despite Huckabee's wins in Kansas and Louisiana, the first contests held since Romney's announcement, almost no one considers him a viable candidate. It will be McCain in a landslide.

So how bad can that be? McCain the long-time senator from Arizona, McCain the war hero, McCain the skipper of the "Straight Talk Express." It can be pretty bad. Witness the above referenced wins by Huckabee on 9 February. On the initial opportunity to get behind their de facto nominee, the Republicans of Kansas and Louisiana balked. One may argue that the "evangelicals" of those two states pushed Huckabee to victory, and there is a certain degree of truth to that. However, no one seriously considers Huckabee a potential nominee. The vote on Saturday was akin to Clinton's weak showing in Michigan (where she was the only candidate on the ballot) -- it was a warning to an insulated party and an undesirable candidate.

Despite the efforts of the Republican Party to woo hispanic and latino voters, the electoral success of their national candidates relies upon the turnout of conservative voters. Yet the party seems to willfully challenge that voter base. After all, no true conservative could vote for a liberal democrat and there are only two choices. Come the 4th of November, they assume, the conservatives will fall in line. To anyone using their ears instead of their mouth, however, that appears to be quite unlikely. Conservatives are tired of being taken for granted, tired of voting for a lesser evil, and tired of candidates who pledge themselves to conservative principles then govern as moderates or worse.

The truth is that no viable conservative political party exists. Both parties have moved to the left. Former conservatives have become moderates, moderates have become liberals, and liberals have moved to some far-left, unnamable position. True conservatives are searching for a representative voice and finding none.

One interesting question that will be raised by McCain's nomination is whether a new conservative alternative option will appear. Assuming the right does not rally around McCain, do conservatives sit out the election or will this be the impetus for a third-party candidate? There exists at least a slim chance that an American Conservative Party (or some such) will emerge. The problem with that is that no well-known conservative figure exists. The conservative movement, such as it is, exists outside of Washington. Talk radio is its rallying point and no political representative has emerged. Conservatives truly get lip service in lieu of representation.

Come November, the party will likely rally around McCain. However, a continuing fracture in the party will remain a possibility. In that case the likely result of McCain's nomination, despite his protestations, is a Clinton or Obama presidency. After all, better the devil you know than some snake oil salesman. Conservatives could then rally around attempting to install an obstructionist Congress, and conservatism would continue along its slow path toward extinction.